Gillard can win the next election?

Everywhere you look these days you see commentary that the Gillard Government is dead and buried. Yes, the polls are bad and they seem to be stuffing more often than they get things right, but I still think that Gillard can win the next election (scheduled for about two years from now). This observation is based on three observations:

  1. The first is that things can not get much worse for Gillard: she has had no luck and every time the government does something well, it  is drowned out by something else – can this last?
  2. The second is that I do not think the Opposition is very good. Abbott and his shadow ministry are making a great deal of noise being critical but they have produced any real policies. Two years is a long time in Opposition and there is plenty of time to see things fall apart there (especially as Abbott is sitting on a deeply divided party); and
  3. Gillard and the Labor Government start using the ALP policy framework when designing policy. At the moment we seem to be presented with a series of policy initiatives that make no sense and are often contradictory.

The fortunes of the Gillard Government was the focus of my latest piece for the Punch available here. I received some quite aggressive emails in response to this article. Would be interested to know your thoughts.

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One Response to Gillard can win the next election?

  1. Shane Hopkinson says:


    Well I couldn’t read al the responses but I have noticed this approach by conservatives on my local conservative federal members facebook page – the slightest challenge (you know asking for evidence) is met with abuse pretty early in the discussion – along with claims to be an oppressed majority speaking for ordinary people. I am enjoying the rise of OWS movement (if its not too early to call it that) but I think the absence of the Tea Party elements (and similar rhetoric here) gives the lie to their claims to be sticking up for the little guy.

    Nevertheless while I guess it possible that Gilliard could win (and Abbot would be a disaster) I think the things you cite as what needs to be done are precisely the opposite of what the ALP right have done and will continue to do. Urging the leadership to follow their party’s own platform surely gives the lie to what is going on – as for better policy on refugees or the mining tax they were the issues they knifed Rudd on – so calling for a reversal there is not in their DNA. They feel much more at home negotiating with Abbot than the Left – even tho its manifest to the most politically naive observer that this course is a chance to give Abbott as many free kicks as he wants. Anything but the Left tho – even if its contrary to Party platform. They have the worlds greatest treasurer and led Australia well thru the GFC but they can’t capitalise on that because it would mean questioning their own neoliberal policy settings – and again its better to look responsible even if means conceding to the conservatives.

    I don’t think the Greens performance has been up to much either – they should have been loud left critics and less ‘respectable’ – instead we even get the spectacle of Tony attacking Gillard from the Left – hypocritically insisting on the need for human rights protections for refugees and asserting the rights of nurses against the excesses of the union leadership.

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